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Data

You can access a .csv with detailed RPV estimates and their confidence intervals, for every state.

Election data sources

2016 and 2020 estimates use Voting and Election Science Team precinct returns aligned by the ALARM Project’s 2020 Redistricting Data Files.

2024 estimates use precinct-level returns compiled for Kenny (2026). Redistricting Data Hub provided returns for AL, AZ, GA, IL, KS, LA, MA, MD, MO, MS, NC, NE, NH, OH, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, and WI. New York returns come from Benjamin J. Rosenblatt and Twitter’s @cincy9. California and Michigan data were collected directly from state and local election offices by Christopher T. Kenny. Returns for the remaining states were collected by Josh Metcalf.

AK AL AR AZ CA CO CT DE FL GA HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT WA WI WV WY DC USA
  Alabama VTDs     AL_county_2020_summary.csv
  Alaska VTDs     AK_county_2020_summary.csv
  Arizona VTDs     AZ_county_2020_summary.csv
  Arkansas VTDs     AR_county_2020_summary.csv
  California VTDs     CA_county_2020_summary.csv
  Colorado VTDs     CO_county_2020_summary.csv
  Connecticut VTDs     CT_county_2020_summary.csv
  Delaware VTDs     DE_county_2020_summary.csv
  Florida VTDs     FL_county_2020_summary.csv
  Georgia VTDs     GA_county_2020_summary.csv
  Hawaii VTDs     HI_county_2020_summary.csv
  Idaho VTDs     ID_county_2020_summary.csv
  Illinois VTDs     IL_county_2020_summary.csv
  Indiana VTDs     IN_county_2020_summary.csv
  Iowa VTDs     IA_county_2020_summary.csv
  Kansas VTDs     KS_county_2020_summary.csv
  Kentucky VTDs     KY_county_2020_summary.csv
  Louisiana VTDs     LA_county_2020_summary.csv
  Maine VTDs     ME_county_2020_summary.csv
  Maryland VTDs     MD_county_2020_summary.csv
  Massachusetts VTDs     MA_county_2020_summary.csv
  Michigan VTDs     MI_county_2020_summary.csv
  Minnesota VTDs     MN_county_2020_summary.csv
  Mississippi VTDs     MS_county_2020_summary.csv
  Missouri VTDs     MO_county_2020_summary.csv
  Montana VTDs     MT_county_2020_summary.csv
  Nebraska VTDs     NE_county_2020_summary.csv
  Nevada VTDs     NV_county_2020_summary.csv
  New Hampshire VTDs     NH_county_2020_summary.csv
  New Jersey VTDs     NJ_county_2020_summary.csv
  New Mexico VTDs     NM_county_2020_summary.csv
  New York VTDs     NY_county_2020_summary.csv
  North Carolina VTDs     NC_county_2020_summary.csv
  North Dakota VTDs     ND_county_2020_summary.csv
  Ohio VTDs     OH_county_2020_summary.csv
  Oklahoma VTDs     OK_county_2020_summary.csv
  Oregon VTDs     OR_county_2020_summary.csv
  Pennsylvania VTDs     PA_county_2020_summary.csv
  Rhode Island VTDs     RI_county_2020_summary.csv
  South Carolina VTDs     SC_county_2020_summary.csv
  South Dakota VTDs     SD_county_2020_summary.csv
  Tennessee VTDs     TN_county_2020_summary.csv
  Texas VTDs     TX_county_2020_summary.csv
  Utah VTDs     UT_county_2020_summary.csv
  Vermont VTDs     VT_county_2020_summary.csv
  Virginia VTDs     VA_county_2020_summary.csv
  Washington VTDs     WA_county_2020_summary.csv
  West Virginia VTDs     WV_county_2020_summary.csv
  Wisconsin VTDs     WI_county_2020_summary.csv
  Wyoming VTDs     WY_county_2020_summary.csv


Using the data

Data Format

In the current iteration, data summaries are available for contested statewide and federal elections within each county in the United States. Almost all counties are included, except for a small number of extremely small counties with too few precincts or voting districts to produce estimates.

In the summary files, each observation is identified by county, race, and cand.

  • county: County name
  • race: voter race
    • white: White
    • black: Black
    • hisp: Hispanic
    • oth: Other race or ethnicity (not White, Black, or Hispanic)
  • cand: candidate
  • mean: mean estimate of support
  • sd: standard deviation of the estimate
  • ci_95_lower: lower bound for the 95% confidence interval
  • ci_95_upper: upper bound for the 95% confidence interval